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Sunday, April 15, 2012

15-Apr - Swedish and German football

13:30 CET (7:30 EST)  2.Bundesliga  1860 to win v. Bochum  +200  10x
13:30 CET (7:30 EST)  2.Bundesliga  Paderborn -0.75 v. Cottbus  +104  10x
17:00 CET (11:00 EST)  Superettan  Ängelholm -0.75 v. Västerås -103  10x
17:30 CET (11:30 EST) Allsvenskan  Åtvidaberg win v. Mjällby +259  10x
17:30 CET (11:30 EST) 1.Bundesliga  Freiburg/Hoffenheim o2.75 +107 10x

So kind of a big card today.  I've been on a roll.  The Åtvidaberg and 1860 plays are mainly due to favourable lines.  They won't have full lineups, but still are playing lesser opponents, especially in the case 1860.  Åtvidaberg's wheels will fall off some time after promotion, but Mjällby is a poor squad and +259 is great value.  And remember my plays are to win.  So in the Munich case, it's risking 5x to make 10x.

The Bundesliga matchup is going back to the Cardinal Rule of Bundesliga: midtier matchups are (almost) always overs.  Freiburg has been scoring at a very solid clip at home, as has Hoffenheim on the road.  Last week Hoffenheim put in four on HSV, but Freiburg should have a more solid defense than them.  Regardless, I do like there to be four.  Maybe a repeat of the 2-2 draw that Freiburg experienced last week, but it would be fun to watch a 3-1 Freiburg win.

I love Paderborn vs. Cottbus.  Paderborn isn't as strong as they were earlier in the season, but Cottbus is in disarray.  Paderborn should get the win, and possibly by two.  With Paderborn fighting for promotion, albeit unrealistically, they'll go for the jugular here.

Down in  Superettan, Ängelholm beat Västerås twice last year, and I expect the same to continue, as there haven't been too many changes to either squads' lineups.  Västerås will be fighting to avoid relegation all year, and Ängelholm will be fighting to make it to Allsvenskan.

In Superettan, BP beat Falkenberg plenty last year, but it's early and these two teams could combine for anything.  In Allsvenskan, Göteborg has started poorly and Örebro has been, as expected: poor.  Anything could happen in that one.  AIK and Syrianska featured an abandoned match last year, but with it early and AIK underperforming, it's tough to call.  In 2.Bundesliga, I really want to take the Bavarian squad Ingolstadt over Karlsruhe, but with recent results and critical points to avoid relegation, it's tough to call.  And with the other 1.Bundesliga match, Köln is garbage, I feel really sorry for Podo.  But it is Podo, and he could get a hat trick at anytime.  Gladbach should easily get the win, but are underperforming with a depleted squad.  Too tough to call, under/over or winner.

Swept the NHL last night 2-0-0 thanks to an OT winner.  Thought it was over with that five minute major.  15-1-3 (14.1%) is great and 10 straight wins (2 half wins, so 9-1-0) is even better.

LAST GAMES


14-Apr WIN 10x Blackhawks win v. Coyotes  -105; +10x; Total: 15-1-3  +141.55x
14 Apr WIN 5 Blues/Sharks u5 -125; +5x; Total: 14-1-3  +131.55x
13-Apr 1/2 WIN 10x Fürth -0.75 vs. Sankt Pauli -115; +5x; Total: 13-1-3  +126.55x
13-Apr WIN 10x  Union/Braunschweig u2.5 -101; +10x; Total: 12.5-0.5-3  +121.55x
10-Apr WIN 20x Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito -1 vs. Defensor Sporting -107; +20x; Total: 11.5-0.5-3  +111.55x
10-Apr WIN 20x Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito win vs. Defensor Sporting -171; +20x; Total: 10.5-0.5-3  +91.55x
10-Apr WIN 10x Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs win v. Gefle -102; +10x; Total: 9.5-0.5-3  +71.55x
10-Apr WIN 10x Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs/Gefle o2.5 +122 10x; +10x; Total: 8.5-0.5-3  +61.55x
10-Apr 1/2 WIN 10x Bundesliga Hertha Berlin/Freiburg o2.75 +107; +5x; Total: 7.5-0.5-3  +51.55x
10-Apr WIN 10x Bundesliga Mainz 05/Köln o2.75 -112; +10x; Total: 7-0-3  +46.55x
06-Apr LOSS  10x Allsvenskan (Swedish top tier)  Gefle to win vs. Syrianska  +107  10x; -9.35; Total: 6-0-3  +27.2x
06-Apr WIN 10x Championship (England second tier)  Reading -1 vs. Leeds +103; +10x; Total: 6-0-2  +36.55x
06-Apr LOSS 10x Championship (England second tier)  Watford/Blackpool o2.5  -139; -6.95; Total: 5-0-2  +26.55x
06-Apr WIN 10x Turkish Süper Lig  Karabükspor/Beşiktaş draw  +274; +5; Total: 5-0-1  +33.5x
05-Apr LOSS 10x NHL Senators/Bruins o5.5 -115  10x; -11.5x; Total: 4-0-1  +28.5
05-Apr WIN 10x UEFA Europa League: Hannover/Atlético o2.5 -120; +10x; Total: 4-0-0  +40x
04-Apr WIN 10x NHL Lightning/Canadians o5.5  -110: +10x; Total:   3-0-0  +30x
04-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Chelsea/Benfica o2.5  -117: +10x; Total: 2-0-0  +20x
03-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Bayern/Marseilles at half u4.5 -120; +10x; Total: 1-0-0  +10x.

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