24-Jun Updated Straight Scores

Previous record carried from earlier.

Recent straight scores:
23-Jun Spain 2 - France 0 +627 risk 2x --- WIN 14.54x
23-Jun Spain 1 - France 0 +454 risk 2x --- LOSE 2x
22-Jun Germany 2 - Greece 0 +452 risk 2x --- LOSE 2x
22-Jun Germany 1 - Greece 0  +520 risk 2x --- LOSE 2x
Record: 1-0-3 +8.54x
Previous Record: 2-0-3 +18x
Total Record: 3-0-6 +26.54

24-Jun Updated Record

Latest plays:
23-Jun Spain win v. France  -126  20x --- WIN 20x
22-Jun Germany/Greece u2.5  -109  10x --- LOSE 10.9X

Record: 1-0-1 +9.1x
June Record: 13.5-0.5-6 +122.17 (12.2%)
Overall Record: 31-2-13 +259.23x (25.923%)

21-Jun Updated Record

21-Jun  Portugal win v Czech Rep -125 20x --- WIN 20x
next four from blog and twitter post
20-Jun  Öster win v Falkenberg -161  10x --- WIN 10x
20-Jun  BP win v. Varberg  -148  10x --- WIN 10x
20-Jun  Ljungskile win v. Degerfor -160  10x --- LOSE 16X
20-Jun  Three parlayed risk 5x to win 8.46x --- LOSE 5x
Record:  3-0-2  +19x
June Record:  12.5-0.5-5  +113.07 (11.3%)
Overall Record:  30-2-12 +250.13x (25.013%)

20-Jun Superettan Plays -- Day of the Favourites

Not many great plays in Superettan, and none in Finland.  Lots of under teams vs. over teams type matchups.  Other matchups are coinflips, or a draw in waiting.  Except for three matches of big favourites that all look likely to win.  Östers IF is the league champ to date and is 6-0-0 at home, so it would be best to ride that out against midtier Falkenberg that's been ugly on the road.  Tough to eye the -0.75 in this match, because Öster does not win big, usually 1-0 or 2-1.  BP (or IF Brommapojkarna) is always a tough team and is 6-0-0 at home, as well. Varbergs BoIS, however, is a slightly more dangerous opponent, and BP is prone to let in a goal or two en route to a win.  Thus I go for the straight win and not the -0.75 or -1; over was tempting however.  The last and more tentative play would be Ljungskile over Degerfor.  Ljungskile likely won't be in the promotion conversation like BP or Öster, but they are playing a team definitely in the demotion conversation. Ljungskile is 3-1-0 in its last four at home, 6-1-3 in the last ten v. Degerfor, and 4-1-0 at home with the draw in 2006.

A parlay of the three favourite pays 4.42 or +342, and while I steer clear of parlays more than two, I'll give this one a shot.  If you wish to decrease risk, Öster/BP parlay is 2.69/+169.

OFFICIAL PLAYS FOR 20-JUN
(all Superettan)
Öster win v Falkenberg
BP win v. Varberg  -148  10x
Ljungskile win v. Degerfor -160  10x
Three parlayed risk 5x to win 8.46x

19-Jun Updated Record

RECENT TWITTER STRAIGHT PLAYS
19-Jun England to win v. Ukraine +105 20x --- WIN 20x
19-Jun FRA to win & ENG to win +224 risk 10x --- LOSS -10x
19-Jun Group D both matchs u2.5 +224 risk 10x --- WIN +22.4x
17-Jun Superettan Ängelholm to win v. Degerfors -112 10x --- WIN 10x
17-Jun Veikkausliiga‬ -- Mariehamn‬ over MyPa -102 10x  --- LOSS -10.2x
Record: 3-0-2  +32.2x (3.22%)
June Record: 9.5-0.5-3 +94.07 (9.4%)
Total: 27-2-10 +231.13x (23.113%)

Latest plays were here, but I removed the DEU/NED straight score to avoid double counting, as it was added here.  Otherwise, it will be the same as the previous post.


RECENT TWITTER STRAIGHT PLAYS
16-Jun Euro 2012 Czech PK  +150  10x --- WIN 10x
16-Jun Superettan Falkenberg to win v. Trelleborg -105  10x --- WIN 10x
15-Jun Group D both matches o2.0 +190  10x --- HALF WIN +5x
14-Jun Nadal v. Kohlschreiber u22 -110  10x --- WIN +10x
13-Jun Germany PK v. Netherlands -132  20x --- WIN +20x
13-Jun Germany/Netherlands o2.5  +101  10x --- WIN +10x
13-Jun Germany 2 - Netherlands 1  +600 risk 2x --- WIN +12x***
09-Jun Netherlands -1 v. Denmark +123  10x --- LOSS -8.13x
08-Jun Antigua and Barbuda +3 vs United States  +150  5x --- WIN +5x
Record: 6.5-0.5-1 +61.87x (6.187%)
Blog posts: 17.5-1.5-7 +137.06x (13.793%)
Total: 24-2-8  +198.93 (19.893%)

*** - Removed from totals and added to straight scores blog post.

Completed Forecasts and Scores (Euro2012)

RECENT TWITTER EURO FORECASTS
16-Jun Russia & Czech Rep Advance +385 risk 5x--- LOSS 5x
16-Jun Poland finishes last +385 risk 2x --- WIN 7.7x
16-Jun Czech Rep Qualify +265 risk 2x --- WIN 5.3x
15-Jun Karim Benzema to lead scoring +2500  risk 1x to win 25x --- LOSS 1x (technically not a loss, yet)
14-Jun Group D Dual Forecast France & England  +175 risk 10x --- WIN 17.5x
08-Jun Group B Dual Forecast: Germany & Netherlands +100 5x --- LOSS 5x
06-Jun Group C Straight Forecast: 1) Spain 2) Ireland +780 risk 2x to win 15.6x --- LOSS 2x
Record: 3-0-4 +17.5x (+1.75%)


RECENT TWITTER EURO STRAIGHT SCORES

19-Jun France 2 - Sweden 0  +567 risk 2x --- LOSS -2x
19-Jun France 1 - Sweden 0  +634 risk 2x --- LOSS -2x
19-Jun England 2 - Ukraine 0  +600 risk 2x --- WIN +12x
19-Jun England 1 - Ukraine 0  +722 risk 2x --- LOSS -2x
13-Jun Germany 2 - Netherlands 1  +600 risk 2x --- WIN +12x***
Record: 2-0-3 +18x (+1.8%)


*** - moved from straight plays to straight scores.

17-Jun Superettan Ängelholm to win v. Degerfors -112 10x

Ängelholm is in a bit of an ugly stretch, but Degerfor is in even worse.  Both were contending for promotion last year and have finished around each others' table position in the last couple years.  But looking deeper into the numbers, Ängelholm has scored a goal in 100% of their home matches and Degerfor has scored just once in their five road matches.  Ängelholm should win this to get back on track

17-Jun Veikkausliiga‬ -- Mariehamn‬ over MyPa -102 10x 10x

Saw the line move to my liking presumably due to weather.  I still like the team from Åland to get the job done at home.  MyPa is in mediocre form and IFK Mariehamn‬ is a juggernaut at home.  Drop from -122 to -102 sealed the play.

Pending Euro Forecasts

PENDING EURO FORECASTS
15-Jun Karim Benzema to lead scoring +2500  risk 1x to win 25x <--- Doubtful
14-Jun Group D Dual Forecast France & England  +175 risk 10x <--- Promising
08-Jun Group B Dual Forecast: Germany & Netherlands +100 5x <--- Can't see this hitting
06-Jun Group C Straight Forecast: 1) Spain 2) Ireland +780 risk 2x to win 15.6x <--- will lose

Recent Completed Twitter plays

RECENT TWITTER STRAIGHT PLAYS
19-Jun England to win v. Ukraine +105 20x --- WIN 20x
19-Jun FRA to win & ENG to win +224 risk 10x --- LOSS -10x
19-Jun Group D both matchs u2.5 +224 risk 10x --- WIN +22.4x
17-Jun Superettan Ängelholm to win v. Degerfors -112 10x --- WIN 10x
17-Jun Veikkausliiga‬ -- Mariehamn‬ over MyPa -102 10x  --- LOSS -10.2x
Record: 3-0-2  +32.2x (3.22%)
June Record: 9.5-0.5-3 +94.07 (9.4%)
Total: 27-2-10 +231.13x (23.113%)


Latest plays were here, but I removed the DEU/NED straight score to avoid double counting, as it was added here.  Otherwise, it will be the same as the previous post.


RECENT TWITTER STRAIGHT PLAYS
16-Jun Euro 2012 Czech PK  +150  10x --- WIN 10x
16-Jun Superettan Falkenberg to win v. Trelleborg -105  10x --- WIN 10x
15-Jun Group D both matches o2.0 +190  10x --- HALF WIN +5x
14-Jun Nadal v. Kohlschreiber u22 -110  10x --- WIN +10x
13-Jun Germany PK v. Netherlands -132  20x --- WIN +20x
13-Jun Germany/Netherlands o2.5  +101  10x --- WIN +10x
13-Jun Germany 2 - Netherlands 1  +600 risk 2x --- WIN +12x***
09-Jun Netherlands -1 v. Denmark +123  10x --- LOSS -8.13x
08-Jun Antigua and Barbuda +3 vs United States  +150  5x --- WIN +5x
Record: 6.5-0.5-1 +61.87x (6.187%)
Blog posts: 17.5-1.5-7 +137.06x (13.793%)
Total: 24-2-8  +198.93 (19.893%)

*** - Removed from totals and added to straight scores blog post.

Updated Record

LAST GAMES

19-Apr WIN 10x Veikkausliga   MYPA to win v. FF Jaro  +155; +10x; Total: 17.5-1.5-7  +137.06x

19-Apr LOSS 10xVeikkausliga   JJK -0.75 v. Haka  -106; -10.6x; Total: 16.5-1.5-7  +127.06x

15-Apr  LOSS 2.Bundesliga  1860 to win v. Bochum  +200; -5x; Total: 16.5-1.5-6  +137.66x

15-Apr  WIN 2.Bundesliga  Paderborn -0.75 v. Cottbus  +104; +10x; Total: 16.5-1.5-5  +142.66x

15-Apr  1/2 WIN 10x Superettan  Ängelholm -0.75 v. Västerås -103; +5x; Total: 15.5-1.5-5  +132.66x

15-Apr LOSS 10x Allsvenskan  Åtvidaberg win v. Mjällby +259; -3.89x; Total: 15-1-5  +127.66x

15-Apr LOSS 10x 1.Bundesliga  Freiburg/Hoffenheim o2.75 +107; -10x; Total: 15-1-4  +131.55x

14-Apr WIN 10x Blackhawks win v. Coyotes  -105; +10x; Total: 15-1-3  +141.55x

14 Apr WIN 5 Blues/Sharks u5 -125; +5x; Total: 14-1-3  +131.55x

13-Apr 1/2 WIN 10x Fürth -0.75 vs. Sankt Pauli -115; +5x; Total: 13-1-3  +126.55x

13-Apr WIN 10x  Union/Braunschweig u2.5 -101; +10x; Total: 12.5-0.5-3  +121.55x

10-Apr WIN 20x Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito -1 vs. Defensor Sporting -107; +20x; Total: 11.5-0.5-3  +111.55x
10-Apr WIN 20x Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito win vs. Defensor Sporting -171; +20x; Total: 10.5-0.5-3  +91.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs win v. Gefle -102; +10x; Total: 9.5-0.5-3  +71.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs/Gefle o2.5 +122 10x; +10x; Total: 8.5-0.5-3  +61.55x

10-Apr 1/2 WIN 10x Bundesliga Hertha Berlin/Freiburg o2.75 +107; +5x; Total: 7.5-0.5-3  +51.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Bundesliga Mainz 05/Köln o2.75 -112; +10x; Total: 7-0-3  +46.55x

06-Apr LOSS  10x Allsvenskan (Swedish top tier)  Gefle to win vs. Syrianska  +107  10x; -9.35; Total: 6-0-3  +27.2x

06-Apr WIN 10x Championship (England second tier)  Reading -1 vs. Leeds +103; +10x; Total: 6-0-2  +36.55x

06-Apr LOSS 10x Championship (England second tier)  Watford/Blackpool o2.5  -139; -6.95; Total: 5-0-2  +26.55x

06-Apr WIN 10x Turkish Süper Lig  Karabükspor/Beşiktaş draw  +274; +5; Total: 5-0-1  +33.5x

05-Apr LOSS 10x NHL Senators/Bruins o5.5 -115  10x; -11.5x; Total: 4-0-1  +28.5

05-Apr WIN 10x UEFA Europa League: Hannover/Atlético o2.5 -120; +10x; Total: 4-0-0  +40x

04-Apr WIN 10x NHL Lightning/Canadians o5.5  -110: +10x; Total:   3-0-0  +30x
04-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Chelsea/Benfica o2.5  -117: +10x; Total: 2-0-0  +20x
03-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Bayern/Marseilles at half u4.5 -120; +10x; Total: 1-0-0  +10x.

Revitalize

After finishing third out of 41 cappers in JLB's contest, I think I'll try to restart the blog.  In sports that aren't my strong suit (NBA/MLB), I used my capping ability to finish 20-12 and up 10.07 units in 10 days.  Plays will, as always be documented on Twitter.  I will also try to pool together my past plays.

19-Apr Veikkausliga plays

17:30 CET (11:30 EST)  Veikkausliga   MYPA to win v. FF Jaro  +155  10x

17:30 CET (1:30 EST)  Veikkausliga   JJK -0.75 v. Haka  -106  10x

I like both of these Veikkausliga plays a lot.  MYPA beat FF Jaro all three times they played last year, including two in Jakobstad.  With the match in Myllykoski, and Jaro still not a great team with the potential for demotion, MYPA should certainly take this one.  PK is a decent play at -122 for draw protection, but I'm confident in the win.  JJK Jyväskylä is a great home side last year and historically.  And like MYPA, they defeated their opponent in all three contests last year.  Two of them by two goals and one by one.  I took the 0.75 for the half win if it is by one and full win if by two.  JJK should get off to a good start at home in the Veikkausliga and eye a Europa League berth, yet again.  Haka, on the other hand, will be with FF Jaro in the bottom of the standings.

In some other prominent Veikkausliga matches, Mariehamn should grab a win against KuPS courtesy of home pitch.  HJK is the perennially best team in Finland, but TPS can beat them at home, so I stayed away.  Inter Turku is another primer team, but VPS can be troublesome at home.  In most of these, it's too early to see how goals will go.  I couldn't pick a winner in the Superettan match with both squads looking relatively good and split results the last couple of seasons.  Ängelholm would take it, if it were home, in my opinion.  UEFA Europa League are another couple of tough calls.  Atlético and Valencia have been under in matches between them, but are over squads.  And Sporting should win at home, but Bilbao really wants this title.

Last batch of games, I didn't fare great on the W-L column, but the units weren't too bad. 1.5-0.5-3 for a loss of 3.89 or 0.39%.

LAST GAMES

15-Apr  LOSS 2.Bundesliga  1860 to win v. Bochum  +200; -5x; Total: 16.5-1.5-6  +137.66x

15-Apr  WIN 2.Bundesliga  Paderborn -0.75 v. Cottbus  +104; +10x; Total: 16.5-1.5-5  +142.66x

15-Apr  1/2 WIN 10x Superettan  Ängelholm -0.75 v. Västerås -103; +5x; Total: 15.5-1.5-5  +132.66x

15-Apr LOSS 10x Allsvenskan  Åtvidaberg win v. Mjällby +259; -3.89x; Total: 15-1-5  +127.66x

15-Apr LOSS 10x 1.Bundesliga  Freiburg/Hoffenheim o2.75 +107; -10x; Total: 15-1-4  +131.55x

14-Apr WIN 10x Blackhawks win v. Coyotes  -105; +10x; Total: 15-1-3  +141.55x

14 Apr WIN 5 Blues/Sharks u5 -125; +5x; Total: 14-1-3  +131.55x

13-Apr 1/2 WIN 10x Fürth -0.75 vs. Sankt Pauli -115; +5x; Total: 13-1-3  +126.55x

13-Apr WIN 10x  Union/Braunschweig u2.5 -101; +10x; Total: 12.5-0.5-3  +121.55x

10-Apr WIN 20x Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito -1 vs. Defensor Sporting -107; +20x; Total: 11.5-0.5-3  +111.55x
10-Apr WIN 20x Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito win vs. Defensor Sporting -171; +20x; Total: 10.5-0.5-3  +91.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs win v. Gefle -102; +10x; Total: 9.5-0.5-3  +71.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs/Gefle o2.5 +122 10x; +10x; Total: 8.5-0.5-3  +61.55x

10-Apr 1/2 WIN 10x Bundesliga Hertha Berlin/Freiburg o2.75 +107; +5x; Total: 7.5-0.5-3  +51.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Bundesliga Mainz 05/Köln o2.75 -112; +10x; Total: 7-0-3  +46.55x

06-Apr LOSS  10x Allsvenskan (Swedish top tier)  Gefle to win vs. Syrianska  +107  10x; -9.35; Total: 6-0-3  +27.2x

06-Apr WIN 10x Championship (England second tier)  Reading -1 vs. Leeds +103; +10x; Total: 6-0-2  +36.55x

06-Apr LOSS 10x Championship (England second tier)  Watford/Blackpool o2.5  -139; -6.95; Total: 5-0-2  +26.55x

06-Apr WIN 10x Turkish Süper Lig  Karabükspor/Beşiktaş draw  +274; +5; Total: 5-0-1  +33.5x

05-Apr LOSS 10x NHL Senators/Bruins o5.5 -115  10x; -11.5x; Total: 4-0-1  +28.5

05-Apr WIN 10x UEFA Europa League: Hannover/Atlético o2.5 -120; +10x; Total: 4-0-0  +40x

04-Apr WIN 10x NHL Lightning/Canadians o5.5  -110: +10x; Total:   3-0-0  +30x
04-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Chelsea/Benfica o2.5  -117: +10x; Total: 2-0-0  +20x
03-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Bayern/Marseilles at half u4.5 -120; +10x; Total: 1-0-0  +10x.

 

15-Apr - Swedish and German football

13:30 CET (7:30 EST)  2.Bundesliga  1860 to win v. Bochum  +200  10x

13:30 CET (7:30 EST)  2.Bundesliga  Paderborn -0.75 v. Cottbus  +104  10x

17:00 CET (11:00 EST)  Superettan  Ängelholm -0.75 v. Västerås -103  10x

17:30 CET (11:30 EST) Allsvenskan  Åtvidaberg win v. Mjällby +259  10x

17:30 CET (11:30 EST) 1.Bundesliga  Freiburg/Hoffenheim o2.75 +107 10x

So kind of a big card today.  I've been on a roll.  The Åtvidaberg and 1860 plays are mainly due to favourable lines.  They won't have full lineups, but still are playing lesser opponents, especially in the case 1860.  Åtvidaberg's wheels will fall off some time after promotion, but Mjällby is a poor squad and +259 is great value.  And remember my plays are to win.  So in the Munich case, it's risking 5x to make 10x.

The Bundesliga matchup is going back to the Cardinal Rule of Bundesliga: midtier matchups are (almost) always overs.  Freiburg has been scoring at a very solid clip at home, as has Hoffenheim on the road.  Last week Hoffenheim put in four on HSV, but Freiburg should have a more solid defense than them.  Regardless, I do like there to be four.  Maybe a repeat of the 2-2 draw that Freiburg experienced last week, but it would be fun to watch a 3-1 Freiburg win.

I love Paderborn vs. Cottbus.  Paderborn isn't as strong as they were earlier in the season, but Cottbus is in disarray.  Paderborn should get the win, and possibly by two.  With Paderborn fighting for promotion, albeit unrealistically, they'll go for the jugular here.

Down in  Superettan, Ängelholm beat Västerås twice last year, and I expect the same to continue, as there haven't been too many changes to either squads' lineups.  Västerås will be fighting to avoid relegation all year, and Ängelholm will be fighting to make it to Allsvenskan.

In Superettan, BP beat Falkenberg plenty last year, but it's early and these two teams could combine for anything.  In Allsvenskan, Göteborg has started poorly and Örebro has been, as expected: poor.  Anything could happen in that one.  AIK and Syrianska featured an abandoned match last year, but with it early and AIK underperforming, it's tough to call.  In 2.Bundesliga, I really want to take the Bavarian squad Ingolstadt over Karlsruhe, but with recent results and critical points to avoid relegation, it's tough to call.  And with the other 1.Bundesliga match, Köln is garbage, I feel really sorry for Podo.  But it is Podo, and he could get a hat trick at anytime.  Gladbach should easily get the win, but are underperforming with a depleted squad.  Too tough to call, under/over or winner.

Swept the NHL last night 2-0-0 thanks to an OT winner.  Thought it was over with that five minute major.  15-1-3 (14.1%) is great and 10 straight wins (2 half wins, so 9-1-0) is even better.

LAST GAMES

14-Apr WIN 10x Blackhawks win v. Coyotes  -105; +10x; Total: 15-1-3  +141.55x

14 Apr WIN 5 Blues/Sharks u5 -125; +5x; Total: 14-1-3  +131.55x

13-Apr 1/2 WIN 10x Fürth -0.75 vs. Sankt Pauli -115; +5x; Total: 13-1-3  +126.55x

13-Apr WIN 10x  Union/Braunschweig u2.5 -101; +10x; Total: 12.5-0.5-3  +121.55x

10-Apr WIN 20x Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito -1 vs. Defensor Sporting -107; +20x; Total: 11.5-0.5-3  +111.55x
10-Apr WIN 20x Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito win vs. Defensor Sporting -171; +20x; Total: 10.5-0.5-3  +91.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs win v. Gefle -102; +10x; Total: 9.5-0.5-3  +71.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs/Gefle o2.5 +122 10x; +10x; Total: 8.5-0.5-3  +61.55x

10-Apr 1/2 WIN 10x Bundesliga Hertha Berlin/Freiburg o2.75 +107; +5x; Total: 7.5-0.5-3  +51.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Bundesliga Mainz 05/Köln o2.75 -112; +10x; Total: 7-0-3  +46.55x

06-Apr LOSS  10x Allsvenskan (Swedish top tier)  Gefle to win vs. Syrianska  +107  10x; -9.35; Total: 6-0-3  +27.2x

06-Apr WIN 10x Championship (England second tier)  Reading -1 vs. Leeds +103; +10x; Total: 6-0-2  +36.55x

06-Apr LOSS 10x Championship (England second tier)  Watford/Blackpool o2.5  -139; -6.95; Total: 5-0-2  +26.55x

06-Apr WIN 10x Turkish Süper Lig  Karabükspor/Beşiktaş draw  +274; +5; Total: 5-0-1  +33.5x

05-Apr LOSS 10x NHL Senators/Bruins o5.5 -115  10x; -11.5x; Total: 4-0-1  +28.5

05-Apr WIN 10x UEFA Europa League: Hannover/Atlético o2.5 -120; +10x; Total: 4-0-0  +40x

04-Apr WIN 10x NHL Lightning/Canadians o5.5  -110: +10x; Total:   3-0-0  +30x
04-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Chelsea/Benfica o2.5  -117: +10x; Total: 2-0-0  +20x
03-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Bayern/Marseilles at half u4.5 -120; +10x; Total: 1-0-0  +10x.

14-Apr NHL Postseason - Blackhawks

1:35 CET (19:35 EST)  Blues/Sharks u5 -125  5x

4:35 CET (22:05 EST) Blackhawks win v. Coyotes  -105   10x
Two awesome keepers in Niemi and Halák here.  A little weary some depth scoring goes off on both sides, but as @gottiboy said, by all means it should be a 2-1 or 3-1 match.

One the other game in the West, the Blackhawks showed that they can solve Mike Smith and Jonathan Toews had an incredible game.  I like the Hawks in this one because they have the experience, and had a great game that didn't fall in the win column.  Coyotes have a solid squad and should take the series, but I think the Toews momentum takes this game.

14-Apr - Recap

Looks like I went on a little bit of a streak without updating.  Had a couple of half wins and got luck on a couple.  But 7 wins and 2 half wins is fine by me.  Record of 8-1-0 in the last 9 is fine by me; +90x in that span (9%).

LAST GAMES

13-Apr 1/2 WIN 10x Fürth -0.75 vs. Sankt Pauli -115; +5x; Total: 13-1-3  +126.55x

13-Apr WIN 10x  Union/Braunschweig u2.5 -101; +10x; Total: 12.5-0.5-3  +121.55x

10-Apr WIN 20x Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito -1 vs. Defensor Sporting -107; +20x; Total: 11.5-0.5-3  +111.55x
10-Apr WIN 20x Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito win vs. Defensor Sporting -171; +20x; Total: 10.5-0.5-3  +91.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs win v. Gefle -102; +10x; Total: 9.5-0.5-3  +71.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs/Gefle o2.5 +122 10x; +10x; Total: 8.5-0.5-3  +61.55x

10-Apr 1/2 WIN 10x Bundesliga Hertha Berlin/Freiburg o2.75 +107; +5x; Total: 7.5-0.5-3  +51.55x

10-Apr WIN 10x Bundesliga Mainz 05/Köln o2.75 -112; +10x; Total: 7-0-3  +46.55x

06-Apr LOSS  10x Allsvenskan (Swedish top tier)  Gefle to win vs. Syrianska  +107  10x; -9.35; Total: 6-0-3  +27.2x

06-Apr WIN 10x Championship (England second tier)  Reading -1 vs. Leeds +103; +10x; Total: 6-0-2  +36.55x

06-Apr LOSS 10x Championship (England second tier)  Watford/Blackpool o2.5  -139; -6.95; Total: 5-0-2  +26.55x

06-Apr WIN 10x Turkish Süper Lig  Karabükspor/Beşiktaş draw  +274; +5; Total: 5-0-1  +33.5x

05-Apr LOSS 10x NHL Senators/Bruins o5.5 -115  10x; -11.5x; Total: 4-0-1  +28.5

05-Apr WIN 10x UEFA Europa League: Hannover/Atlético o2.5 -120; +10x; Total: 4-0-0  +40x

04-Apr WIN 10x NHL Lightning/Canadians o5.5  -110: +10x; Total:   3-0-0  +30x
04-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Chelsea/Benfica o2.5  -117: +10x; Total: 2-0-0  +20x
03-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Bayern/Marseilles at half u4.5 -120; +10x; Total: 1-0-0  +10x.

13-Apr 2.Bundesliga Plays: Fürth -0.75 vs. Sankt Pauli & Union/Braunschweig u2.5

18:00 CET (12:00 EST) Fürth -0.75 vs. Sankt Pauli -115  10x

18:00 CET (12:00 EST) Union/Braunschweig u2.5 -101   10x

After a sweep of 6 plays (tecnically 5.5-0.5-0), I took some days off as I wasn't going to force anything.

I like Fürth to continue their dominance in 2.Bundesliga, even though they're facing a very good Sankt Pauli team.  I'd like to see a Sankt Pauli win, but with current form at home, Fürth is virtually unbeatable.  Maybe a two goal win is a little much to ask, but it should be a half hit, at least.

Also Braunschweig is a ridiculous under team these year (60%) and these two squad played to a scoreless draw.  I like Braunschweig to continue their draw streak, but probably in more of a 1-1 fashion.  Union can be tricky, and may pick up a win at home.

With current form, VfB should get their win versus Werder, but these two teams love being unpredictable, so I can't trust either to do what they should do.  If I had to guess, it'd be over and a VfB win.  Rostock and FSV is much of the same boat, but with two really terrible teams.  Not much to look at.  Over in Allsvenskan, Malmö has a match against Kalmar, who they historically do well against, but with the way Di blåe is playing to start the year, can't say too much.

10-Apr Copa Libertadores: QUITO QUITO QUITO!!

23:30 CET (17:30 EST) Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito -1 vs. Defensor Sporting -107 20x 
23:30 CET (17:30 EST) Copa Libertadores Deportivo Quito win vs. Defensor Sporting -171 20x

This is simple geography and Quito is rock solid at home in these tourneys. You have a coastal sea level team (Defensor Sporting) travelling ~4500km to a team with an elevation of 3km, Deportivo Quito. Travel time to Quito, plus the thin air almost always plays into Ecuadorians favour. I'd say no way Quito doesn't walk away with the win and possibly a win by two. The Uruguay squad is more so evenly matched to the Quito squad than the initial match in Uruguay showed.

10-Apr Allsvenskan and Bundesliga Plays

19:00 CET; 13:00 EST Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs win v. Gefle -102 10x

19:00 CET; 13:00 EST Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs/Gefle o2.5 +122 10x

20:00 CET; 14:00 EST Bundesliga Hertha Berlin/Freiburg o2.75 +107 10x

20:00 CET; 14:00 EST Bundesliga Mainz 05/Köln o2.75 -112 10x

I have loved what Åtvidaberg has done the past couple of seasons. They were involved in a tonne of great games high scoring games last year. Gefle is a squad that perfected the art of the 0-0 or 1-1 road draw last year, but struggled with teams that played more wide open like GAIS or Helsingborg. So I see it as a higher scoring game befitting of the Åtvidaberg squad. Åtvidaberg should pick up the win, too, 2-1, 3-1, maybe 4-1.

Rule of thumb is that midtier Bundesliga matches always end up over (well a good percentage of the time). While Mainz 05/Köln matches are typically lower scoring affairs, both have been lighting up the scoresheet and getting lit up, as well. M05 is 71.4% o2.5 on the season at home and FCK is 78.6% o2.5 on the road. Podo hatty on Wetklo? Maybe. Could be a 2-2 or so draw.

Post-Cissé Freiburg shouldn't be scoring many goals, but they keep proving doubters wrong with strong results. Hertha, on the other hand, is far better at allowing them, and in bunches. I'd normally say Freiburg wins this due to recent and full-season form, but with BSC fighting relgation and in front of the home crowd, anything can happen. But I do expect both sides to play attacking and take advantages of their oppositions poor defenses. Another 'midtier high scorer'.

Other Bundy games: Gladbach and Bremen are both in ho-hum form, Gladbach being an under squad and Bremen being an over squad. Likely will be a 1-1 or 2-2 draw. VfB and Augsberg is tough to call as well, with VfB being in great form overall and FCA in solid form at home. Likely will be an over, but not 100%. Cottbus and Rostock are both bad teams where anything can happen, probably a Cottbus win. Düsseldorf should beat FSV by two, but is in atrocious form lately. Sankt Pauli and Union would be an easy over normally, but Sankt Pauli hasn't been allowing or scoring too much, lately, though Union is still on track. Fürth and Braunschweig should be a great game, but with Braunschweig's crazy record of recent draws, it's tough to guarantee a win for Fürth. Maybe a potential under play.

Likely will have a sizable play on a Copa Libertadores game this evening, as well: Deportivo Quito v. Defensor Sporting.

06-Apr No NHL plays; Football Recap

Not a great day; not a terrible day.  2-0-2 with loss of just 1.3x (0.13%).  Still, a two-thirds clip and +27.2x (+2.72%) isn't a bad start.  No NHL play in the St Louis/Phoenix game.  Will hopefully have time to post Bundesliga plays tomorrow, but may be busy with the holiday.

LAST GAMES

06-Apr LOSS  10x Allsvenskan (Swedish top tier)  Gefle to win vs. Syrianska  +107  10x; -9.35; Total: 6-0-3  +27.2x

06-Apr WIN 10x Championship (England second tier)  Reading -1 vs. Leeds +103; +10x; Total: 6-0-2  +36.55x

06-Apr LOSS 10x Championship (England second tier)  Watford/Blackpool o2.5  -139; -6.95; Total: 5-0-2  +26.55x

06-Apr WIN 10x Turkish Süper Lig  Karabükspor/Beşiktaş draw  +274; +5; Total: 5-0-1  +33.5x

05-Apr LOSS 10x NHL Senators/Bruins o5.5 -115  10x; -11.5x; Total: 4-0-1  +28.5

05-Apr WIN 10x UEFA Europa League: Hannover/Atlético o2.5 -120; +10x; Total: 4-0-0  +40x

04-Apr WIN 10x NHL Lightning/Canadians o5.5  -110: +10x; Total:   3-0-0  +30x
04-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Chelsea/Benfica o2.5  -117: +10x; Total: 2-0-0  +20x
03-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Bayern/Marseilles at half u4.5 -120; +10x; Total: 1-0-0  +10x.

06-Apr Football Plays: Championship, Allsvenskan, Süper Lig

06-Apr

15:00 CET (9:00 EST)  Allsvenskan (Swedish top tier)  Gefle to win vs. Syrianska  +107  10x

15:00 CET (9:00 EST)  Championship (England second tier)  Reading -1 vs. Leeds +103  10x

16:00 CET (10:00 EST)  Championship (England second tier)  Watford/Blackpool o2.5  -139  5x

19:00 CET (13:00 EST)  Turkish Süper Lig  Karabükspor/Beşiktaş draw  +274  5x

Gefle was a solid 7-4-4 at home last season, and I expect that to continue.  Syrianska got a lucky result at home last week against contender IFK, but they're on the road for this one where they fared 2-0-13 last season.  With Gefle fielding a solid squad and Syrianska recently flirting with demotion, Gefle takes this in a low scorer: 1-0 or 2-1.

Leeds is coming off a couple of decent road results, but they weren't against the likes of a Reading team that is ready for promotion.  Reading is 12-4-4 at home and have a victory in their pocket earlier against Leed on the road.  Reading should get this by two, but worst case, it's by one and a push.

Watford and Blackpool are great over 2.5 squads, 60% and 80% respectively.  However Watford is a bit more conservative at home with only 47.5% overs hitting, along with Blackpool at 70% on the road.  Couple that with some massive chalk, and I'll only take on a small play on this one.

Beşiktaş is coming off of three straight road draws agains lesser teams.  Sure they're a top tier team in the Süper Lig, but their crummy run and Karabükspor's 11-2-3 dominance at home (even beating Fenerbahçe has me thinking they at least have a draw in them.  Should be a low scoring affair, too, if you can find it.

=====

Senators/Bruins loss was bad, but still the right call.  Can't fault it.  Especially after lucking out with the Hannover/Atlético, can't complain.

LAST GAMES

05-Apr LOSS 10x NHL Senators/Bruins o5.5 -115  10x; -11.5x; Total: 4-0-1  +28.5

05-Apr WIN 10x UEFA Europa League: Hannover/Atlético o2.5 -120; +10x; Total: 4-0-0  +40x

04-Apr WIN 10x NHL Lightning/Canadians o5.5  -110: +10x; Total:   3-0-0  +30x
04-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Chelsea/Benfica o2.5  -117: +10x; Total: 2-0-0  +20x
03-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Bayern/Marseilles at half u4.5 -120; +10x; Total: 1-0-0  +10x.

05-Apr NHL -- BOS/OTT o5.5 (other plays maybe incoming)

05-Apr NHL Senators/Bruins o5.5 -115  10x

Had to get in on this early.  Ben Bishop started strong for the Sens, but hasn't been too great of late.  Bruins are dressing a farm teamer in goal and are looking at half of their regular lineup.  Ottawa can still score a tonne of goals.  No idea who wins this potential battle of first round opponents, but goals should be plentiful.

Leans right now are WPG/NYI o5.5 and TBL/TOR o6.

05-Apr UEFA Europa League - Hannover/Atlético o2.5

UEFA Europa League: Hannover/Atlético o2.5 -120  10x

Hannover and Atlético are both big over squads.  Hannover has hit the over in nine straight and Atlético in 5 of 6.  Europa League actually means something to both of these squads, so Hannover will come out attacking at home and down on aggregate, but Atlético has too much firepower.  2-1 or 3-1 win for Atlético or a 2-2 draw.


Good hit on TBL/MTL over yesterday; could've afforded to play it higher and probably should have with ther keeper matchup.


LAST GAMES

04-Apr WIN 10x NHL Lightning/Canadians o5.5  -110: 3-0-0  +30x
04-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Chelsea/Benfica o2.5  -117: 2-0-0  +20x
03-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Bayern/Marseilles at half u4.5 win  -120: 1-0-0  +10x.

04-Apr NHL Play TBL/MTL o5.5

04-Apr NHL Lightning/Canadians o5.5 -110  10x

This is a goalie matchup of bad bad goalies Budaj and Caron.  Throw on top some bad defenses, with Stamkos gunning for 60 and Erik Cole being hot.  This has potential to be a massive scorer.


Lucky hit on Chelsea after the first half, but you'll take that.


LAST GAMES
04-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Chelsea/Benfica o2.5: 2-0-0  +20x
03-Apr WIN 10x UEFA CL Bayern/Marseilles at half u4.5 win: 1-0-0  +10x.

04-Apr UEFA Quarters 2nd Leg: Chelsea/Benfica o2.5

UEFA Champions League Halftime: Chelsea/Benfica o2.5  -117  10x

I like this to be a solid 2-1 or 3-1 Chelsea win.  Benfica is playing an absolute patchwork defense and Chelsea wants to build up confidence going into the semis.  Benfica probably has to much offense to be outright shutout, and Chelsea isn't the Chelsea of old.  Even if Benfica gets the result, Chelsea will have gotten by that horrid defense once or twice.


03-Apr Plays
The hit on the Bayern/Marseilles under makes it a good start: 1-0-0  +10x.

03-Apr UEFA Quarters Second Leg Halftime

First posted play:

UEFA Champions League Halftime: Bayern/Marseilles u3.5  -120  10x

Bayern is up 4-0 on aggregate and has no reason to add anymore goals.  Olympique Marseilles isn't a dangerous scoring team regardless.  I wouldn't be surprised if this finishes at 2-0 today.  Time to watch Barca/Milan, in my opinion.

The Groundrules

Basically everyone has a different notation system and I am no different.  I will post starting time (in GMT or CET for football/tennis; if it is a North American League, I will use EST), sport, league, play with odds, and an amount of units.  Most, if not all of my straight plays are to win.  So a +300 at 10x is  risk 3.33x to win 10x.  Forecasts or straight scores with very large odds are usually risk, and will be notated as such, but will usually be small, 1x, 2x, etc. My notation for units will be different in that it is percentage based.  So 5x is 00.5% of your backroll, 10x is 1%, 20x is 2%, and so on.  So a with a £10,000 bankroll, a 5x play is £50, 10x is £100, and 20x is £200.  The reason I do this is not all bankrolls are the same, and it's easier to calculate confidence on plays with a percentage.

For example:
19:35 Football EPL Manchester United -1.5 v. Blackburn -120  10x

Is a play at 19:35 in the EPL for ManU -1.5 at -120 whilst wagering to win 10x, 1% of your bankroll, which would be £100 with the example above.

Obviously, since this is based on percentages, the winnings cannot be directly summated and unit size changes per day.  However, I will update units and plays by summating for simplification sake.

I will accept donations for my plays.  Contact me via email for Paypal or Amazon Payments information.  However, I suggest in lieu of donating to me, donate to your favourite charity.  I would suggest the International Red Cross or Médecins Sans Frontières.

Shoot me a follow on Twitter, where I will post my plays as well, perhaps quicker and more abridged: http://www.twitter.com/TomJSports

Updated 19-Jun