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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

10-Apr Allsvenskan and Bundesliga Plays


19:00 CET; 13:00 EST Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs win v. Gefle -102 10x
19:00 CET; 13:00 EST Allsvenskan Åtvidabergs/Gefle o2.5 +122 10x

20:00 CET; 14:00 EST Bundesliga Hertha Berlin/Freiburg o2.75 +107 10x
20:00 CET; 14:00 EST Bundesliga Mainz 05/Köln o2.75 -112 10x

I have loved what Åtvidaberg has done the past couple of seasons. They were involved in a tonne of great games high scoring games last year. Gefle is a squad that perfected the art of the 0-0 or 1-1 road draw last year, but struggled with teams that played more wide open like GAIS or Helsingborg. So I see it as a higher scoring game befitting of the Åtvidaberg squad. Åtvidaberg should pick up the win, too, 2-1, 3-1, maybe 4-1.

Rule of thumb is that midtier Bundesliga matches always end up over (well a good percentage of the time). While Mainz 05/Köln matches are typically lower scoring affairs, both have been lighting up the scoresheet and getting lit up, as well. M05 is 71.4% o2.5 on the season at home and FCK is 78.6% o2.5 on the road. Podo hatty on Wetklo? Maybe. Could be a 2-2 or so draw.

Post-Cissé Freiburg shouldn't be scoring many goals, but they keep proving doubters wrong with strong results. Hertha, on the other hand, is far better at allowing them, and in bunches. I'd normally say Freiburg wins this due to recent and full-season form, but with BSC fighting relgation and in front of the home crowd, anything can happen. But I do expect both sides to play attacking and take advantages of their oppositions poor defenses. Another 'midtier high scorer'.

Other Bundy games: Gladbach and Bremen are both in ho-hum form, Gladbach being an under squad and Bremen being an over squad. Likely will be a 1-1 or 2-2 draw. VfB and Augsberg is tough to call as well, with VfB being in great form overall and FCA in solid form at home. Likely will be an over, but not 100%. Cottbus and Rostock are both bad teams where anything can happen, probably a Cottbus win. Düsseldorf should beat FSV by two, but is in atrocious form lately. Sankt Pauli and Union would be an easy over normally, but Sankt Pauli hasn't been allowing or scoring too much, lately, though Union is still on track. Fürth and Braunschweig should be a great game, but with Braunschweig's crazy record of recent draws, it's tough to guarantee a win for Fürth. Maybe a potential under play.

Likely will have a sizable play on a Copa Libertadores game this evening, as well: Deportivo Quito v. Defensor Sporting.

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